World Cup 2026 favourites: Spain Lead, England Chase

The bookmakers have spoken: Spain are 2026 World Cup favorites at 11/2, but England, France, and host nation USA all present compelling cases for glory

Following the 2026 World Cup draw, bookmakers have released comprehensive odds for tournament winner, group winners, top scorer, and Golden Boot markets. The numbers reveal fascinating insights: Spain lead as favorites despite drawing Uruguay in the "Group of Death," England are second favorites despite their Croatia rematch, and host nation USA at 28/1 offer intriguing value given historical host nation advantages.

With the complete draw confirmed and match schedule announced, the odds paint a clear picture of tournament favorites, potential dark horses, and value bets that could define the road to MetLife Stadium on July 19, 2026.

Tournament Winner Odds: Complete Breakdown

Top 10 Favorites

Rank	Team	Odds	Implied Probability	Group
1	Spain	11/2 (5.50)	15.4%	Group H vs Uruguay
2	England	6/1 (7.00)	14.3%	Group L vs Croatia
3	France	13/2 (7.50)	13.3%	Group I vs Norway
4	Brazil	8/1 (9.00)	11.1%	Group C vs Morocco
5	Germany	9/1 (10.00)	10.0%	Group E vs Ecuador
6	Argentina	10/1 (11.00)	9.1%	Group J vs Austria
7	Portugal	14/1 (15.00)	6.7%	Group K vs Colombia
8	Netherlands	16/1 (17.00)	5.9%	Group F vs Japan
9	Belgium	25/1 (26.00)	3.8%	Group G vs Egypt
10	USA	28/1 (29.00)	3.4%	Group D vs Paraguay

Why Spain Lead the Betting

The Case for Spain at 11/2

Despite drawing Uruguay in Group H's "Group of Death," bookmakers make Spain overwhelming 11/2 (5.50) favorites. The reasoning is compelling:

• Current Form: World #1 ranked, Euro 2024 champions, unbeaten in 18 months
• Lamine Yamal Factor: The 18-year-old (by 2026) will be in his absolute prime after two years of elite experience
• Squad Depth: Rodri (29), Pedri (23), Nico Williams (24), Gavi (21) – perfect age profile
• Tactical Mastery: Luis de la Fuente's possession system proven at highest level
• Recent Pedigree: 2010 World Cup winners, 2024 Euro champions – tournament specialists

The Uruguay Challenge

Spain's June 26 clash with Uruguay in Guadalajara could be the group stage's defining match. Uruguay at 50/1 (51.00) are considered longshots, but Federico Valverde's midfield mastery and Darwin Núñez's physicality present genuine threats.

Bookmakers clearly believe Spain's technical superiority will prevail. Their 11/2 odds suggest 15.4% probability – the highest of any nation. For comparison, no team has been this heavy a pre-tournament favorite since Brazil in 2002 (when they won).

England's 60-Year Wait: Can 6/1 Deliver?

Why Bookmakers Back England

England at 6/1 (7.00) represent bookmakers' second choice despite 60 years without a major trophy. The odds reflect:

• Golden Generation Peak: Harry Kane (32), Jude Bellingham (23), Bukayo Saka (24), Phil Foden (26) – perfect age blend
• Perfect Qualifying: 8-0-0 record, 36 goals scored, 4 conceded – dominance unprecedented
• Tournament Experience: Euro 2020 runners-up, 2018 World Cup semi-finalists – learned how to navigate deep rounds
• Managerial Stability: Assuming Gareth Southgate or successor maintains tactical framework
• Favorable Draw: Group L with Croatia, Ghana, Panama is manageable despite Croatia opener

The Croatia Psychological Test

Opening against Croatia (who beat them 2-1 AET in 2018 semi-finals) on June 17 at AT&T Stadium presents immediate psychological hurdles. But bookmakers see this as England's chance to exorcise demons early rather than face them in knockouts.

At 6/1, England offer reasonable value if you believe their golden generation can finally deliver. Historical precedent suggests teams winning their first major trophy often do so after multiple near-misses (Spain 2008, France 1998).

France: The Value Pick at 13/2?

Why France Deserve More Respect

France at 13/2 (7.50) might be the tournament's best value bet. Consider:

• Recent Pedigree: Reached 4 of last 6 major finals (won 2018 World Cup, lost 2022 final on penalties)
• Mbappé Prime: At 27, he'll be at absolute peak physical and tactical maturity
• Squad Depth: Can field two world-class XIs – no other nation has this luxury
• Easy Group: Group I with Norway, Senegal, and playoff qualifier should cruise
• Tournament Mentality: Proven winners who know how to navigate pressure

The Mbappé vs Haaland Subplot

France's June 26 match against Norway pits Mbappé against Erling Haaland in what could be a preview of the next decade's Messi-Ronaldo rivalry. France should win comfortably, but this match sells tickets and captures imagination.

At 13/2, France offer better value than England (6/1) with arguably superior tournament pedigree. Their odds imply 13.3% probability – potentially underpriced given recent form.

Brazil at 8/1: Overpriced or Fair?

The Five-Time Champions Dilemma

Brazil at 8/1 (9.00) reflect bookmakers' skepticism about their 24-year drought ending. The mixed assessment:

Reasons for Optimism

• Generational Talent: Vinícius Júnior (25), Rodrygo (25), Endrick (19) entering prime
• Favorable Venues: East Coast tour (NY/NJ, Philadelphia, Miami) with massive Brazilian populations
• Tournament DNA: Five titles, always dangerous in World Cups

Reasons for Concern

• Morocco Challenge: Opening match at MetLife Stadium against 2022 semi-finalists is genuinely tough
• Psychological Scars: 7-1 defeat to Germany in 2014 at home still haunts
• Recent Failures: Quarter-final exits in 2018, 2022 suggest vulnerability
• Defensive Fragility: Conceded goals in all recent knockout matches

At 8/1, Brazil might be slightly overpriced. Morocco's organized defense (conceded just 1 goal in 2022 before semi-finals) could expose Brazilian weaknesses early, damaging confidence for deeper rounds.

Germany's Redemption Mission at 9/1

Four-Time Champions Seeking Respect

Germany at 9/1 (10.00) reflect cautious optimism after consecutive group stage humiliations (2018, 2022). The 2026 case:

• Young Stars Maturing: Florian Wirtz (23), Jamal Musiala (23) entering prime
• Easy Group: Group E with Curaçao, Ecuador, Ivory Coast should restore confidence
• Tournament Specialists: History suggests Germany bounce back from failures
• Tactical Evolution: Julian Nagelsmann's modern approach replacing outdated systems

Germany's opening match against Curaçao (population 160,000, smallest nation ever to qualify) should provide confidence-building 5-0+ victory. At 9/1, they're reasonable value if you believe their 2018-2022 disasters were aberrations rather than decline.

Argentina: Defending Champions at 10/1

Messi's Farewell Tour

Defending champions Argentina at 10/1 (11.00) seem underpriced given:

• Reigning Champions: Won 2022, Copa América 2021, 2024 – three consecutive major titles
• Messi Factor: Even at 38, his genius remains world-class
• Easy Group: Group J with Austria, Algeria, Jordan is very manageable
• Supporting Cast: Enzo Fernández (25), Julián Álvarez (26) entering prime

The Age Concern

At 38, Messi will be the oldest outfield player Argentina have ever relied upon at a World Cup. Can his body withstand seven matches over 39 days? Bookmakers doubt it, hence 10/1 odds that imply just 9.1% probability.

Argentina's opening match against Algeria on June 16 will reveal Messi's physical condition. If he looks sharp, 10/1 could represent massive value.

The Dark Horse: USA at 28/1

Why Host Nation Odds Offer Value

USA at 28/1 (29.00) might be the tournament's best value bet when considering historical host nation advantages:

Historical Host Nation Performance

• 82% advance from groups (18 of 22 hosts qualified for knockouts)
• 59% reach semi-finals (13 of 22 hosts)
• 27% win the tournament (6 of 22 hosts: Uruguay 1930, Italy 1934, England 1966, West Germany 1974, Argentina 1978, France 1998)

USA's Specific Advantages

• Favorable Schedule: All three group matches on West Coast (LA-Seattle-LA), never leaving Pacific time zone
• Pochettino Effect: World-class manager with elite tactical pedigree
• Golden Generation: Christian Pulisic (27), Gio Reyna (23), Weston McKennie (27) entering prime
• Easy Group: Group D with Paraguay, Australia, playoff qualifier is very winnable
• Crowd Support: Every venue will have 70,000+ pro-USA fans

The Realistic Path

USA wins Group D → beats Group C third-place team (Scotland?) in Round of 32 → faces Brazil in Round of 16 → quarter-finals against Spain/England → semi-finals.

Is that realistic? Historical data says host nations exceed expectations. France 1998 (won as hosts), South Korea 2002 (semi-finalists), Russia 2018 (quarter-finalists) all outperformed pre-tournament predictions.

At 28/1, USA offer exceptional value. £10 bet returns £280 profit if they win. Given home advantage, that's mathematically underpriced.

Complete Tournament Winner Odds (All 48 Nations)

Team	Odds	Probability	Group
Spain	11/2	15.4%	H
England	6/1	14.3%	L
France	13/2	13.3%	I
Brazil	8/1	11.1%	C
Germany	9/1	10.0%	E
Argentina	10/1	9.1%	J
Portugal	14/1	6.7%	K
Netherlands	16/1	5.9%	F
Belgium	25/1	3.8%	G
USA	28/1	3.4%	D
Croatia	40/1	2.4%	L
Uruguay	50/1	2.0%	H
Italy (if qualified)	50/1	2.0%	B playoff
Colombia	66/1	1.5%	K
Mexico	80/1	1.2%	A
Denmark (if qualified)	100/1	1.0%	A playoff
Japan	100/1	1.0%	F
Switzerland	100/1	1.0%	B
Morocco	100/1	1.0%	C
Senegal	150/1	0.7%	I
Others (150/1 - 500/1)	Varies	<1%	Various

Group Winner Odds: Where Value Lies

Group A: Mexico's Home Advantage

Mexico are overwhelming 1/3 favorites to win Group A, playing two matches at Estadio Azteca and one in Guadalajara. South Korea at 5/2 offer value if Son Heung-min hits form. South Africa (12/1) and the playoff qualifier (8/1) are rank outsiders.

Value Bet: South Korea at 5/2 – they've reached four consecutive knockout rounds and won't be intimidated by altitude.

Group B: Switzerland Favorites Despite Host

Remarkably, Switzerland (11/10 favorites) are preferred over host nation Canada (7/4). Bookmakers respect Switzerland's four consecutive Round of 16 appearances. If Italy qualify through Playoff A, they'd become co-favorites with Switzerland.

Value Bet: Canada at 7/4 – home advantage at BMO Field and BC Place could overcome Switzerland's experience.

Group C: Brazil Slight Favorites Over Morocco

Brazil at 4/5 are narrow favorites, with Morocco at 7/4 offering genuine value. Their June 13 opening clash at MetLife Stadium could decide the group. Scotland (16/1) and Haiti (100/1) are longshots.

Value Bet: Morocco at 7/4 – 2022 semi-finalists, 2024 AFCON champions, organized defense can frustrate Brazil.

Group D: USA Dominant Favorites

USA at 1/4 are overwhelming favorites – the shortest odds of any group winner market. Australia (9/2), Paraguay (5/1), and Playoff C (10/1) face uphill battles against hosts playing on West Coast.

Value Bet: None – USA odds too short for value, but they should cruise.

Group H: The Group of Death

Spain (4/6 favorites) face Uruguay (2/1) in the tournament's tightest group winner market. Their June 26 showdown in Guadalajara will likely decide the group.

Value Bet: Uruguay at 2/1 – Federico Valverde, Darwin Núñez, and 76-year drought motivation could upset Spain.

Top Scorer / Golden Boot Odds

The Favorites

Player	Team	Odds	Age in 2026
Kylian Mbappé	France	8/1	27
Erling Haaland	Norway	10/1	25
Harry Kane	England	12/1	32
Vinícius Júnior	Brazil	14/1	25
Lamine Yamal	Spain	16/1	18
Julián Álvarez	Argentina	20/1	26
Cristiano Ronaldo	Portugal	25/1	41
Lionel Messi	Argentina	33/1	38

Mbappé vs Haaland: The Golden Boot Duel

Kylian Mbappé (8/1 favorite) and Erling Haaland (10/1) represent the next generation's dominant goal scorers. Their June 26 clash will be appointment viewing.

Mbappé's Advantages

• Plays for tournament favorites France (easier path to 7 matches)
• Already won Golden Boot in 2022 (8 goals)
• Proven World Cup performer (14 career goals at age 27)

Haaland's Challenge

• Norway unlikely to advance past Round of 16, limiting match exposure
• First World Cup – unknown how he handles pressure
• Could score 5+ in group stage alone but lack deep run

Value Bet: Harry Kane at 12/1 – England's penalty taker, proven World Cup scorer (6 goals in 2018 Golden Boot), team expected to reach semi-finals minimum.

Long Shot Value Bets

Teams Offering Exceptional Value

Colombia at 66/1

2024 Copa América runners-up with Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez. Their June 27 match against Portugal could top Group K. At 66/1, small stake returns massive profit.

Morocco at 100/1

2022 semi-finalists, 2024 AFCON champions. Their organized defense frustrated Belgium, Spain, and Portugal in Qatar. At 100/1, they're massively underpriced given proven ability to upset European giants.

Croatia at 40/1

2018 runners-up, 2022 semi-finalists. Modrić at 40 might be his last hurrah, but Croatia's tournament experience is unmatched. At 40/1, they offer value if you believe experience trumps age.

Betting Strategy: Where Smart Money Goes

Conservative Strategy (Higher Probability)

• Tournament Winner: Spain at 11/2 (safest favorite)
• Group Winners: USA (Group D), Germany (Group E), France (Group I) – all should cruise
• Top Scorer: Harry Kane at 12/1 (England's deep run + penalty taker)

Balanced Strategy (Value + Probability)

• Tournament Winner: France at 13/2 (better value than England, deeper squad)
• Dark Horse: USA at 28/1 (home advantage historically underpriced)
• Group Upset: Morocco to win Group C at 7/4 (organized defense vs Brazil's vulnerability)
• Top Scorer: Vinícius Júnior at 14/1 (Brazil's main threat, peak age)

High Risk / High Reward Strategy

• Tournament Winner: USA at 28/1 (home advantage + Pochettino)
• Long Shot: Colombia at 66/1 (Copa América runners-up, could upset Portugal for Group K)
• Major Upset: Morocco at 100/1 (proven giant-killers, AFCON champions)
• Top Scorer: Lamine Yamal at 16/1 (18 years old, Spain's main creator, could explode)

How the Draw Impacts Odds

Winners from the Draw

USA (28/1): Drew weakest possible group (Paraguay, Australia, playoff qualifier) and play all matches on West Coast. Their odds should be shorter.

Germany (9/1): Group E with Curaçao, Ecuador, Ivory Coast offers confidence-building path after 2018-2022 disasters.

Argentina (10/1): Group J with Austria, Algeria, Jordan is very manageable for defending champions.

Losers from the Draw

Uruguay (50/1): Group H with Spain means fighting for second place, then likely knockout path through Netherlands, France, etc.

Canada (7/4 for group): Switzerland and potentially Italy in Group B makes advancing difficult for hosts.

Croatia (40/1): Opening against England in Group L means immediate pressure – one loss and knockout dreams fade.

Final Predictions: Where Bookmakers See Value

Most Likely Champion

Spain at 11/2 – Euro 2024 winners, world #1, perfect squad age profile, tactical mastery. The smart money backs Spain.

Best Value Bet

USA at 28/1 – Historical host nation data suggests they're massively underpriced. France 1998, South Korea 2002, and Russia 2018 all exceeded expectations dramatically.

Dark Horse

Morocco at 100/1 – Proven they can shock European giants, organized defense, AFCON champions. Small stake for potentially huge return.

Top Scorer

Harry Kane at 12/1 – England's penalty taker, proven World Cup scorer, team expected to reach at least semi-finals.

Conclusion: The Odds Tell a Story

The 2026 World Cup betting markets reveal fascinating insights. Spain lead as deserved favorites despite their Group of Death, England chase 60 years of redemption at 6/1, and host nation USA at 28/1 offer exceptional value given historical precedent.

France at 13/2 might be the tournament's best value bet – better odds than England with superior pedigree. Germany at 9/1 seek redemption after consecutive group stage exits. Argentina at 10/1 defend their title with 38-year-old Messi leading one final charge.

But the real value lies in understanding how the draw impacts knockout paths. USA's West Coast schedule and weak group make 28/1 mathematically underpriced. Morocco at 100/1 have proven they can shock European giants. Colombia at 66/1 could upset Portugal for Group K supremacy.

The bookmakers have spoken. Now the journey to MetLife Stadium on July 19, 2026 begins. Will Spain deliver? Can England finally end 60 years of hurt? Will host nation USA shock the world?

The odds suggest Spain. History suggests don't discount the hosts. Smart bettors will hedge both.

Experience the 2026 World Cup live. Browse World Cup 2026 tickets for all 104 matches. Watch Spain chase glory, England seek redemption, USA aim to shock the world, and France defend their status as tournament royalty. From the opening match at Estadio Azteca to the final at MetLife Stadium, witness every moment of football's greatest tournament. The odds are set. The stage awaits. Book your tickets now.