World Cup 2026 Group Stage Predictions: All 12 Groups

From Mexico's Azteca dominance to the Spain-Uruguay showdown – our complete predictions for every group, including the 8 third-place teams advancing to the Round of 32

The 2026 World Cup draw has set the stage for 72 group stage matches across 12 groups. With the schedule confirmed and betting odds released, we can now project how each group will unfold. From Mexico's opening match at Estadio Azteca to the final day drama on June 27, here are our expert predictions for every group.

This isn't just guesswork – we've analyzed team form, historical performance, schedule advantages, travel logistics, and betting market insights to project the 32 teams advancing to knockout rounds. Remember: the top 2 from each group automatically qualify, plus the 8 best third-place teams.

How Third-Place Qualification Works

The 2026 format expands to 48 teams, meaning 32 advance to knockout rounds:

• 24 automatic qualifiers: Top 2 from each of 12 groups
• 8 third-place qualifiers: Best 8 third-place teams across all groups
• Ranking criteria: (1) Points, (2) Goal difference, (3) Goals scored, (4) Head-to-head record, (5) Fair play points, (6) Drawing of lots

This means finishing third isn't elimination – it's a lifeline. Historically, teams with 4 points and 0 goal difference have advanced as third-place teams. In 2026, expect similar thresholds.

Group A: Mexico's Home Advantage Dominates

Predicted Final Standings

Position	Team	Points	Record (W-D-L)	GD
1st	Mexico ✅	7-9	2-1-0 / 3-0-0	+5 to +7
2nd	South Korea ✅	5-6	1-2-0 / 2-0-1	+1 to +3
3rd	Play-off D Winner 🟡	3-4	1-0-2 / 1-1-1	-1 to +1
4th	South Africa ❌	0-3	0-0-3 / 0-1-2	-5 to -7

✅ = Qualified for Round of 32 | 🟡 = Possible third-place qualifier | ❌ = Eliminated

Analysis

Mexico play two matches at Estadio Azteca (87,523 capacity, 7,200 feet altitude) and one in Guadalajara. This home advantage is overwhelming. They open with South Africa on June 11 – expect a 3-0 victory to ignite the tournament.

South Korea are Mexico's primary threat. They've reached four consecutive Round of 16s and possess organization and Son Heung-min's brilliance. Their June 18 clash with Mexico in Guadalajara decides the group. Prediction: 1-1 draw, both teams advance.

The Play-off D winner (Denmark/Czech Republic/Ireland/North Macedonia) could sneak third place with a victory over South Africa and a draw elsewhere. South Africa face the toughest travel (Mexico City → Atlanta → Monterrey) and will struggle.

Key Match

June 18: Mexico vs South Korea – Decides group winner. Draw likely, both advance.

Upset Alert

If Denmark qualify through Play-off D, they could challenge South Korea for second place. Denmark reached 2022 semi-finals (Euro 2020) and possess tournament experience.

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Group B: Switzerland vs Canada – Host Nation Test

Predicted Final Standings

Position	Team	Points	Record (W-D-L)	GD
1st	Switzerland ✅	7	2-1-0	+4
2nd	Canada ✅	6	2-0-1	+2
3rd	Play-off A Winner 🟡	4	1-1-1	0
4th	Qatar ❌	0	0-0-3	-6

Analysis

This is the toughest host nation draw. Switzerland have reached four consecutive Round of 16s and are tactically disciplined. Their June 24 showdown with Canada in Vancouver will be physical and tight.

Canada have home advantage at BMO Field (Toronto) and BC Place (Vancouver), but Switzerland's experience edges it. Prediction: Switzerland 2-1 Canada in final match, Switzerland tops group.

Play-off A is crucial. If Italy qualify, this becomes a genuine Group of Death and Canada could finish third. If Wales or Northern Ireland qualify, Canada should secure second place comfortably.

Qatar showed in 2022 they're not ready for this level (0-3 record, 1 goal scored, 7 conceded). Expect similar struggles.

Key Match

June 24: Switzerland vs Canada – Group decider. Switzerland's experience vs Canada's home crowd.

Upset Alert

If Italy qualify and upset Switzerland early, Canada could top the group. Alphonso Davies' pace and Jonathan David's finishing give Canada genuine quality.

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Group C: Brazil vs Morocco – The Early Blockbuster

Predicted Final Standings

Position	Team	Points	Record (W-D-L)	GD
1st	Brazil ✅	7	2-1-0	+5
2nd	Morocco ✅	6	2-0-1	+3
3rd	Scotland 🟡	4	1-1-1	-2
4th	Haiti ❌	0	0-0-3	-6

Analysis

The June 13 Brazil vs Morocco clash at MetLife Stadium is the group stage's first genuine blockbuster. Morocco's organized defense (2022 semi-finalists, 2024 AFCON champions) will frustrate Brazil, but Vinícius Júnior's brilliance should prevail. Prediction: Brazil 2-1 Morocco.

Brazil then cruise against Haiti and Scotland to top the group with 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw vs Morocco).

Morocco recover to beat Scotland and Haiti, finishing second with 6 points.

Scotland return after 27 years and play two matches in Boston (huge Scottish diaspora). They've never advanced from a World Cup group (0-8 record historically), but this could be their chance. A draw with Morocco and victory over Haiti gives them 4 points – enough for third place and likely Round of 32 qualification.

Haiti's 52-year return is emotional, but the quality gap is too large.

Key Match

June 13: Brazil vs Morocco – Five-time champions vs 2022 semi-finalists. Group decider.

Upset Alert

Morocco's defensive organization could frustrate Brazil into a 1-1 draw, then Morocco beats Scotland and Haiti to top the group. Morocco at 7/4 (betting odds) for group winner offers value.

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Group D: USA's West Coast Cruise

Predicted Final Standings

Position	Team	Points	Record (W-D-L)	GD
1st	USA ✅	9	3-0-0	+7
2nd	Australia ✅	4	1-1-1	0
3rd	Paraguay 🟡	4	1-1-1	-1
4th	Play-off C Winner ❌	1	0-1-2	-6

Analysis

USA received the most favorable draw of any team. They play all three matches on the West Coast (LA-Seattle-LA), never leaving the Pacific time zone. Under Mauricio Pochettino's guidance, they should dominate.

Opening with Paraguay at SoFi Stadium (June 12, 9 PM EST) in front of 70,000+ American fans sets the tone. USA win 3-1.

Their June 19 match against Australia in Seattle is the toughest test. Australia (2022 Round of 16) are organized and physical. Prediction: USA 2-0, securing group supremacy.

Australia and Paraguay battle for second. Both finish with 4 points; Australia's superior goal difference edges it.

Play-off C winner (Slovakia/Kosovo/Turkey/Romania) will struggle with constant West Coast travel.

Key Match

June 19: USA vs Australia – Confirms USA as group winners, tests Pochettino's system.

Upset Alert

None. USA's home advantage, favorable schedule, and quality make them overwhelming favorites. This is their easiest path to knockout rounds in decades.

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Group E: Germany's Redemption Begins

Predicted Final Standings

Position	Team	Points	Record (W-D-L)	GD
1st	Germany ✅	9	3-0-0	+9
2nd	Ecuador ✅	6	2-0-1	+2
3rd	Ivory Coast 🟡	3	1-0-2	-2
4th	Curaçao ❌	0	0-0-3	-9

Analysis

Germany must restore credibility after consecutive group stage disasters (2018, 2022). This group offers the perfect redemption platform.

Opening with Curaçao (June 14 in Houston) – the smallest nation (160,000 population) ever to qualify – should deliver a confidence-building 5-0 victory. Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala will dominate.

Ecuador are Germany's only genuine threat. Their altitude specialists (Quito sits at 9,350 feet) bring physicality and organization. But Germany's quality prevails 2-1 in Toronto.

Ivory Coast beat Curaçao but lose to Germany and Ecuador, finishing third with 3 points – likely insufficient for Round of 32 qualification.

Key Match

June 20: Germany vs Ivory Coast – Tests if Germany's revival is genuine or just beating minnows.

Upset Alert

Ecuador's physicality and altitude experience could frustrate Germany into a draw. If Ecuador beats Germany and Ivory Coast, they top the group.

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Group F: Netherlands Cruise, Japan Push

Predicted Final Standings

Position	Team	Points	Record (W-D-L)	GD
1st	Netherlands ✅	7	2-1-0	+5
2nd	Japan ✅	5	1-2-0	+2
3rd	Play-off B Winner 🟡	4	1-1-1	0
4th	Tunisia ❌	1	0-1-2	-7

Analysis

Netherlands (three-time runners-up, never winners) should dominate this group. Their June 14 opener against Japan at AT&T Stadium in Dallas is the group's headline match.

Japan have reached four consecutive Round of 16s and possess discipline and counter-attacking speed. They'll frustrate Netherlands into a 1-1 draw, then beat Tunisia and Play-off B to advance.

Play-off B is intriguing. If Sweden qualify (1958 runners-up), they push for second. If Poland (with Lewandowski if he's still playing at 37) qualify, same story. If Ukraine or Albania qualify, Netherlands and Japan advance comfortably.

Key Match

June 14: Netherlands vs Japan – European quality vs Asian organization. Draw likely.

Upset Alert

If Sweden qualify and upset Netherlands early, they could top the group. Sweden's experience (Euro 2020 knockouts) makes them dangerous.

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Group G: Belgium's Last Dance

Predicted Final Standings

Position	Team	Points	Record (W-D-L)	GD
1st	Belgium ✅	7	2-1-0	+4
2nd	Egypt ✅	5	1-2-0	+1
3rd	Iran 🟡	4	1-1-1	0
4th	New Zealand ❌	1	0-1-2	-5

Analysis

Belgium's "Golden Generation" (Kevin De Bruyne 35, Eden Hazard retired, Romelu Lukaku 33) gets one final shot. They should advance, but the glory days are fading.

Egypt (with Mohamed Salah 34) provide the main threat. Their June 15 opener in Seattle will be tight – Belgium 2-1.

Iran are defensively solid and beat New Zealand, then draw with Egypt to finish third with 4 points – likely enough for Round of 32.

Key Match

June 15: Belgium vs Egypt – De Bruyne vs Salah. Group decider.

Upset Alert

If Belgium's aging core struggles physically, Egypt could top the group. Salah's individual brilliance makes Egypt dangerous.

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Group H: The True Group of Death

Predicted Final Standings

Position	Team	Points	Record (W-D-L)	GD
1st	Spain ✅	7	2-1-0	+5
2nd	Uruguay ✅	6	2-0-1	+3
3rd	Saudi Arabia 🟡	3	1-0-2	-3
4th	Cape Verde ❌	0	0-0-3	-5

Analysis

The tournament's genuine Group of Death. World #1 Spain (Euro 2024 champions) face two-time champions Uruguay (76-year drought) in the June 26 showdown at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara.

Spain beat Cape Verde 3-0 and Saudi Arabia 2-0, then draw 1-1 with Uruguay to top the group with 7 points. Lamine Yamal (18), Rodri (29), and Pedri (23) dominate possession against Uruguay's physicality.

Uruguay recover from the Spain draw to beat Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde, advancing with 6 points. Federico Valverde and Darwin Núñez provide quality.

Saudi Arabia shocked Argentina 2-1 in 2022 – they can't be underestimated. They beat Cape Verde to finish third with 3 points, but goal difference likely insufficient for Round of 32.

Key Match

June 26: Spain vs Uruguay – Final-quality match in group stage. Group decider.

Upset Alert

Uruguay's 76-year drought motivation could upset Spain. If Uruguay wins 2-1, they top the group and Spain finishes second – dramatically altering knockout bracket.

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Group I: France's Depth Dominates

Predicted Final Standings

Position	Team	Points	Record (W-D-L)	GD
1st	France ✅	9	3-0-0	+8
2nd	Norway ✅	4	1-1-1	0
3rd	Senegal 🟡	4	1-1-1	-1
4th	Play-off 2 Winner ❌	1	0-1-2	-7

Analysis

France possess the tournament's deepest squad. Kylian Mbappé (27) in absolute prime, supported by endless talent. They cruise to 9 points (3-0-0) without breaking sweat.

The battle for second is fascinating. Norway (Erling Haaland's first World Cup after 27-year absence) face Senegal (2022 Round of 16, 2021 AFCON winners).

Their June 26 clash in Boston pits Mbappé against Haaland – the next generation's rivalry. France win 3-2 in a goal-fest, but Norway's other results (draw with Senegal, beat Play-off 2) secure second place on goal difference.

Key Match

June 26: Norway vs France – Mbappé vs Haaland. Appointment television.

Upset Alert

Senegal's organization could upset Norway for second place. Both finish with 4 points; goal difference decides.

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Group J: Argentina Cruise, Messi Manages Minutes

Predicted Final Standings

Position	Team	Points	Record (W-D-L)	GD
1st	Argentina ✅	7-9	2-1-0 / 3-0-0	+6
2nd	Austria ✅	6	2-0-1	+2
3rd	Algeria 🟡	3	1-0-2	-2
4th	Jordan ❌	0	0-0-3	-6

Analysis

Defending champions Argentina received a comfortable draw. Lionel Messi (38) will be carefully managed – expect him to play 60-70 minutes per match, preserving energy for knockouts.

Opening with Algeria on June 16 in Kansas City, Argentina win 2-0. Messi plays 65 minutes, Julián Álvarez scores twice.

Their June 22 match against Austria in Dallas is tougher. Austria's high press (Ralf Rangnick system) frustrates Argentina into a 1-1 draw. Messi plays full 90 to rescue a point.

Argentina then beat Jordan 3-0, topping the group with 7 points (or 9 if they beat Austria).

Austria beat Algeria and Jordan to finish second with 6 points.

Key Match

June 22: Argentina vs Austria – Austria's press vs Argentina's possession. Draw likely.

Upset Alert

If Austria beats Argentina (unlikely but possible with high press), they top the group. Austria at 7/1 (betting odds) for group winner offers outsider value.

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Group K: Portugal vs Colombia – Ronaldo's Farewell

Predicted Final Standings

Position	Team	Points	Record (W-D-L)	GD
1st	Colombia ✅	7	2-1-0	+4
2nd	Portugal ✅	6	2-0-1	+3
3rd	Uzbekistan 🟡	3	1-0-2	-3
4th	Play-off 1 Winner ❌	0	0-0-3	-4

Analysis

Bold prediction: Colombia (2024 Copa América runners-up) top this group over Portugal. Here's why:

Their June 27 showdown in Miami will have a pro-Colombia atmosphere (massive Latin American population). Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez (34) provide quality. Prediction: Colombia 2-1 Portugal.

Cristiano Ronaldo at 41 plays his final World Cup group stage. Portugal beat Uzbekistan and Play-off 1 comfortably, but Colombia's physicality and home-crowd advantage in Miami proves decisive.

Portugal finish second with 6 points, dramatically altering their knockout path.

Key Match

June 27: Colombia vs Portugal – Group decider. Ronaldo's potential group stage finale.

Upset Alert

Portugal could cruise if they take Colombia seriously. But complacency after beating weaker opponents could cost them.

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Group L: England-Croatia Rematch Decides

Predicted Final Standings

Position	Team	Points	Record (W-D-L)	GD
1st	England ✅	7	2-1-0	+5
2nd	Croatia ✅	6	2-0-1	+3
3rd	Ghana 🟡	3	1-0-2	-3
4th	Panama ❌	0	0-0-3	-5

Analysis

The June 17 England vs Croatia rematch at AT&T Stadium in Dallas is the group's defining moment. In 2018, Croatia won 2-1 AET in the semi-final. In 2026, England get revenge.

England's golden generation (Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka) are mature and motivated. They beat Croatia 2-1 in a tense, physical encounter. Kane scores both goals.

Croatia (with potentially 40-year-old Luka Modrić playing his final World Cup) recover to beat Ghana and Panama, advancing with 6 points.

England then beat Ghana and Panama to top the group with 7 points.

Ghana beat Panama but lose to England and Croatia, finishing third with 3 points – likely insufficient for Round of 32.

Key Match

June 17: England vs Croatia – 2018 semi-final rematch. Revenge for England.

Upset Alert

If Croatia's veterans (Modrić, Mateo Kovačić, Joško Gvardiol) find one more tournament run, they could draw or even beat England. Croatia at 2/1 (betting odds) for group winner offers value.

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Third-Place Qualification Projections

The 8 Best Third-Place Teams

Based on projected group standings, these 8 third-place teams advance to Round of 32:

Rank	Team	Group	Points	GD	Goals For
1	Scotland ✅	C	4	-2	3
2	Play-off A Winner ✅	B	4	0	4
3	Play-off B Winner ✅	F	4	0	3
4	Paraguay ✅	D	4	-1	3
5	Iran ✅	G	4	0	2
6	Senegal ✅	I	4	-1	4
7	Play-off D Winner ✅	A	4	0	3
8	Algeria ✅	J	3	-2	3
9	Ghana ❌	L	3	-3	2
10	Ivory Coast ❌	E	3	-2	2
11	Uzbekistan ❌	K	3	-3	2
12	Saudi Arabia ❌	H	3	-3	3

Analysis

The cutoff will likely be 4 points. Teams with 3 points and negative goal difference (Ghana, Ivory Coast, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia) will be eliminated.

Scotland's 4 points from Group C (beating Haiti, drawing Morocco, losing to Brazil) should be enough. Play-off winners from Groups A, B, F with 4 points also advance.

Algeria barely sneaks in as the 8th-best third-place team with 3 points but better goal difference than Ghana.

Final Projected Round of 32 Qualifiers

All 32 Teams Advancing

Seed	Group Winners (12)	Runners-Up (12)	Third Place (8)
1-4	Spain, France, USA, Germany	Uruguay, Norway, Australia, Ecuador	Scotland, Play-off A
5-8	Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Netherlands	Morocco, South Korea, Austria, Japan	Play-off B, Paraguay
9-12	Belgium, England, Colombia, Switzerland	Egypt, Croatia, Portugal, Canada	Iran, Senegal, Play-off D, Algeria

Key Takeaways & Predictions Summary

Guaranteed Group Winners

• USA (Group D): 9 points, West Coast dominance, no competition
• France (Group I): 9 points, deepest squad, cruise to qualification
• Germany (Group E): 9 points, redemption tour begins against weak group
• Spain (Group H): 7 points, survive Group of Death despite Uruguay challenge

Tightest Group Battles

• Group B: Switzerland vs Canada (host advantage vs experience)
• Group C: Brazil vs Morocco (five-time champions vs 2022 semi-finalists)
• Group H: Spain vs Uruguay (Group of Death showdown)
• Group K: Colombia vs Portugal (Ronaldo's farewell drama)
• Group L: England vs Croatia (2018 semi-final rematch)

Biggest Upsets Predicted

• Colombia tops Group K over Portugal (Miami home advantage)
• Morocco pushes Brazil to draw in Group C (organized defense frustrates Seleção)
• Norway finishes 2nd in Group I over Senegal (Haaland's impact)

Teams on Upset Alert

• Canada (Group B): Could finish third if Switzerland and Italy (if qualified) both win
• Belgium (Group G): Aging core vulnerable to Egypt upset
• Portugal (Group K): Complacency against Colombia could cost group supremacy

What This Means for Knockout Bracket

Projected Round of 32 Dream Matchups

Based on group winners and runners-up, potential Round of 32 clashes:

• Spain (Group H winner) vs Scotland (Group C third) – David vs Goliath
• USA (Group D winner) vs Paraguay (Group D third) – Rematch from group stage
• Brazil (Group C winner) vs Switzerland (Group B winner) – 2022 repeat (Switzerland won on penalties)
• England (Group L winner) vs Egypt (Group G runner-up) – Kane vs Salah
• France (Group I winner) vs Croatia (Group L runner-up) – 2018 final rematch
• Germany (Group E winner) vs South Korea (Group A runner-up) – Redemption for 2018 disaster

Potential Quarter-Final Paths

If group winners advance through Round of 32 and Round of 16:

• Spain vs Netherlands (2010 final rematch)
• Brazil vs Argentina (first-ever World Cup meeting between rivals)
• England vs France (historic rivalry renewed)
• Germany vs Belgium (2018 group stage rematch)

Conclusion: Group Stage Sets Up Historic Knockouts

The 2026 World Cup group stage will deliver drama from Mexico's opening match at Estadio Azteca through the final day chaos on June 27. Spain and Uruguay's Group H showdown, England's Croatia revenge mission, USA's West Coast dominance, and Colombia's potential upset of Portugal create compelling narratives.

The 32 teams advancing to knockouts will include favorites (Spain, France, England, Brazil), resurgent powers (Germany, Argentina), host nations (USA, Mexico, likely Canada), and third-place survivors battling on goal difference.

Our predictions favor tournament favorites, but World Cups always deliver upsets. Morocco could top Group C over Brazil. Colombia could eliminate Portugal from group supremacy. Croatia could repeat their 2018 heroics against England.

The group stage sets the table. The knockouts decide immortality. On June 11, 2026, at Estadio Azteca, the journey begins.

Experience every moment of the 2026 World Cup group stage. Browse World Cup 2026 tickets for all 72 group matches. Watch Spain vs Uruguay's Group of Death showdown, England's revenge against Croatia, Brazil vs Morocco's early blockbuster, and Ronaldo's final group stage match against Colombia. From Mexico's opening ceremony to the Round of 32 qualification drama, secure your tickets now and witness football history unfold.