Who the bookmakers expect to reach the semi-finals

PSG and Bayern Munich are the strong favourites to progress, while Arsenal are as near to certainties as football allows. Only Barcelona face a realistic shot at overturning their deficit — and even they are up against it.

Second leg odds overview

Tie	Date	Home win	Draw	Away win	To advance (home)	To advance (away)
Liverpool vs PSG	Tue 14 Apr — 21:00	37/25	17/5	31/20	24/5	3/25
Atlético Madrid vs FC Barcelona	Tue 15 Apr — 21:00	29/10	67/20	43/50	13/50	27/10
Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon	Wed 16 Apr — 21:00	21/50	39/10	15/2	1/25	10/1
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid	Wed 16 Apr — 21:00	31/50	15/4	41/10	1/10	27/5

Arsenal: a formality in all but name

Arsenal are priced at a remarkable 1/25 to reach the semi-finals — odds that essentially reflect a certainty. Having won 1-0 in Lisbon with something to spare, Mikel Arteta's side simply need to avoid a catastrophic collapse at home to Sporting, who are listed at 10/1 to overturn the tie. The only genuine concern heading into the Emirates is the fitness of Martin Ødegaard and Leandro Trossard, both of whom came off during the first leg. A clean bill of health for both and the bookmakers will look generous at 1.04.

Bayern: one hand on the semi-finals

A 1/10 odds-on price to advance tells you everything you need to know about how bookmakers view Bayern Munich's position. Winning 2-1 at the Bernábeu is a formidable first-leg result, and Vincent Kompany's side now host the second leg in Munich, where they are priced at 31/50 to win the match itself. Real Madrid at 27/5 to progress reflects their task: they need to score first, win the tie, and do so against a Bayern side that has looked imperious throughout this season's competition. Not impossible for a club with Real's European pedigree — but the numbers don't lie.

PSG: nearly over the line against a stunned Liverpool

Paris Saint-Germain are 1.12 to reach the semi-finals, and after their dominant 2-0 win at the Parc des Princes it is hard to argue with that assessment. Liverpool at 5.80 to go through face an enormous mountain at Anfield. They need to score at least twice without reply against a PSG side that conceded nothing in the first leg and looked entirely comfortable doing so. Arne Slot will need Mohamed Salah — kept on the bench throughout in Paris — fit, firing, and at his very best. Even then, the task is severe.

Interestingly, the match odds for the second leg are almost perfectly split: Liverpool 2.48 at home versus PSG at 2.55. The bookmakers expect PSG to travel to Anfield and compete on equal terms, which in itself underlines how the balance of power in this tie has shifted.

Barcelona: the tie with the most intrigue

The most interesting set of odds belongs to the Metropolitano. Atlético are 1.26 to advance — strong favourites — but Barcelona at 3.70 is notably more generous than the other underdogs. That reflects the reality of the tie: Atlético's two-goal cushion was built partly on a Cubarsí red card, and the Barcelona attack, with Lamine Yamal in this form, is capable of scoring two goals at any venue in the world.

The match odds tell a slightly different story: Barcelona are actually favoured to win the game in Madrid at 1.86, with Atlético at 3.90. Diego Simeone's side are set up to absorb and counter, not to go chasing a win — meaning the match dynamics may well suit Barcelona even as the tie odds favour the hosts. If Yamal starts the way he played in the second half at the Camp Nou, nothing is guaranteed. At 3.70, Barcelona to reach the semi-finals might just be the most interesting bet of the week.

With a Champions League final place ultimately at stake, the second legs promise drama in every corner of Europe next week. The bookmakers may have made up their minds — but football rarely sticks to the script.