Who Will Win the 2026 EFL Cup Final?

The battle for the first silverware of the season takes place at Wembley on March 22 – here's everything you need to know and our prediction for the 2026 Carabao Cup final

The Stakes

Arsenal and Manchester City meet at Wembley Stadium on Sunday 22 March for the 2026 EFL Cup final, with kick-off at 16:30 GMT. For the Gunners, it represents a chance to end a 33-year wait for the League Cup trophy. For City, it's an opportunity to reassert their domestic dominance and close the gap on Arsenal in an increasingly tense title race.

Arsenal lead the Premier League by six points and have their sights set on an unprecedented quadruple, having also qualified for the Champions League knockout rounds as group winners and progressed in the FA Cup. City, meanwhile, are desperate to prevent their rivals from gaining further momentum and will view this final as the first genuine battleground in what could be a defining month for both clubs. If you want to witness this historic clash in person, EFL Cup final tickets are available now.

Form Guide

Arsenal (Last 5: W-W-W-L-W)

The Gunners are in imperious form. Their 5-1 demolition of Manchester City earlier this season remains fresh in the memory, while they've responded to a rare defeat against Manchester United with back-to-back wins – a 4-0 thrashing of Leeds United and a 3-0 victory over Sunderland. Viktor Gyökeres scored twice off the bench against the Black Cats, while Martin Zubimendi opened the scoring with a stunning strike. Arsenal have won 17 of their 25 Premier League games this season, scoring 49 goals and conceding just 19.

Manchester City (Last 5: W-W-D-W-W)

City's form has been more inconsistent, but they've shown their championship pedigree in recent weeks. A dramatic 2-1 comeback win at Anfield – with Erling Haaland scoring a stoppage-time penalty for his first ever Premier League goal at the ground – was followed by a commanding 5-1 aggregate victory over Newcastle in the semi-finals. Omar Marmoush has emerged as a key figure, scoring twice in the second leg against the Magpies, while Rayan Cherki continues to impress with his creativity.

Key Players

Arsenal

Kai Havertz – The German has been Arsenal's man for the big occasion in this competition. His 97th-minute winner against Chelsea in the semi-final second leg showcased his ability to deliver when it matters most. His movement and clinical finishing will be crucial against City's defence.

Declan Rice – The £105m midfielder has been the heartbeat of Arsenal's title challenge. His ability to break up play, drive forward with the ball, and deliver telling passes makes him arguably the best box-to-box midfielder in the Premier League.

William Saliba – The French defender has been immense this season. His partnership with Gabriel has given Arsenal one of the meanest defences in Europe, and his composure on the ball allows Arteta's side to build from the back with confidence.

Manchester City

Omar Marmoush – The January signing from Frankfurt has hit the ground running. With Haaland's form fluctuating, Marmoush has stepped up with goals in crucial moments, including a brace in the semi-final victory over Newcastle. His pace and movement could trouble Arsenal's high line.

Rayan Cherki – The French playmaker has been City's standout performer in this season's EFL Cup, scoring in three of their four rounds including both semi-final legs. His technical ability and eye for goal make him a genuine threat.

Rodri – The Ballon d'Or winner remains the metronome of City's midfield. His ability to control the tempo and his defensive positioning will be vital in what promises to be an intense tactical battle.

Tactical Battle

This final pits two of the finest tacticians in world football against each other. Mikel Arteta, who learned his trade under Pep Guardiola at City, has developed his own identity at Arsenal, a high-pressing, possession-based style with devastating counter-attacking ability.

Arsenal's 5-1 victory over City earlier this season came through a combination of defensive solidity and clinical finishing on the break. Expect Arteta to employ a similar approach at Wembley, looking to frustrate City's build-up play and exploit the space left by their high defensive line.

City, however, have shown adaptability this season. The emergence of Marmoush has given Guardiola a different attacking option, while the return of Ruben Dias to full fitness provides stability at the back. Guardiola will look to dominate possession and starve Arsenal of the ball – a tactic that has served him well in cup finals throughout his career.

Injury Concerns

Arsenal

The Gunners have concerns over Bukayo Saka (hip) and Martin Odegaard (muscle), both of whom have missed recent games. Arteta has expressed confidence that both will return soon, with the North London derby on February 22 the current target for Saka's comeback. Mikel Merino remains a long-term absentee following foot surgery. Given the final is on March 22, Arsenal should have a fully-fit squad by then.

Manchester City

City face significant defensive issues. Joško Gvardiol is likely out for the season with a tibial fracture, while Marc Guéhi has been ruled ineligible for the final by the EFL despite Guardiola's appeals. The England defender was signed from Crystal Palace after the semi-final first leg, meaning he cannot participate under competition rules. Savinho is also a doubt with injury. Guardiola will likely rely on a partnership of Abdukodir Khusanov and Ruben Dias at centre-back.

Head-to-Head

Arsenal and Manchester City have met 213 times in their history, with Arsenal holding an overall advantage (101 wins to 65). However, City dominated this fixture in recent years until Arsenal's resurgence under Arteta.

The clubs met in the 2018 League Cup final, with City winning 3-0 thanks to goals from Sergio Agüero, Vincent Kompany and David Silva. They also faced each other in the 2020 EFL Cup quarter-finals (City won 4-1) and the 2020 FA Cup semi-finals (Arsenal won 2-0).

This season, their Premier League meeting at the Emirates produced a stunning 5-1 Arsenal victory – their biggest win over City in the Premier League era. Want to see the next chapter of this rivalry unfold live? Secure your Carabao Cup final tickets today.

The Verdict

Arsenal arrive at Wembley as favourites for the first time in years against Manchester City. Their six-point lead in the Premier League, their dominance in the earlier meeting this season, and their superior squad depth all point towards a Gunners victory.

However, underestimating Pep Guardiola in a cup final is a dangerous game. City have shown resilience in big moments this season, and their late comeback at Anfield demonstrated they still possess the winning mentality that has brought so much success.

The key battleground will be midfield. If Rice and Zubimendi can control proceedings against Rodri and whoever partners him, Arsenal should create enough chances to win. But if City can dominate possession and pin Arsenal back, their attacking quality could prove decisive.

Early Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Manchester City

Arsenal's superior form, home advantage (in terms of neutral venue but Southern-based support), and the absence of Guéhi from City's defence tips this one in the Gunners' favour. Expect a tense, tactical affair decided by a moment of individual brilliance – and with Havertz in the form of his life, that moment is likely to come Arsenal's way.

Get Your EFL Cup Final Tickets

Don't miss your chance to witness this blockbuster final at Wembley Stadium. Buy your EFL Cup final tickets now to experience Arsenal vs Manchester City live on March 22. Whether you're supporting the Gunners or the Citizens, this promises to be one of the most memorable domestic cup finals in years.

Looking for tickets to earlier rounds of next season's competition or other EFL Cup matches? Browse our full range of Carabao Cup tickets for fixtures throughout the tournament.