How you can use xG to find your Premier League tickets

We often get questions which teams we advise to visit. Fans of a certain team always know what they want, but there is also a huge fanbase with neutrals who just love the Premier League. They don’t care about the teams that play, just want to soak up the atmosphere and enjoy a good game of football. That’s why we write this guide on how you can use xG to pick the perfect match to visit.

More about xG and xGA

We start with a little explanation about xG and xGA. xG (Expected Goals) and xGA (Expected Goals Against) are statistical metrics used in football to assess the quality of scoring chances and defensive performance during a match. These metrics provide a more nuanced understanding of a team's or player's performance beyond just looking at goals scored and conceded.

What is xG (Expected Goals)?

xG is a statistical measure that quantifies the likelihood of a specific goal-scoring opportunity resulting in a goal. It's calculated using various factors such as the distance from the goal, the angle of the shot, the type of pass leading to the shot, and historical data on similar chances. xG is typically expressed as a number between 0 and 1, where higher values indicate a higher probability of scoring.

4. What is xGA (Expected Goals Against)?

xGA is the counterpart to xG. It measures the likelihood of conceding a goal based on the quality of chances faced by a team's defense. Like xG, xGA is calculated using factors such as shot location, type of shot, and defensive pressure. A low xGA indicates that a team's defense is effectively limiting the quality of chances their opponents are getting.

How to use xG to find the right Premier League tickets

Now we know a bit more about how xG and xGA works, its time for the big question. How can I use xG to select the right tickets. Football is a game about goals and xG helps us to understand which teams are more likely to score goals. We’ve made a deepdive into the xG and xGA numbers in the first half of this Premier League season. In this table below, we show the average xG and xGA per team. Newcastle United tops the xG + xGA table with 2.2 xG and 1.7 xGA on average per match. So, Newcastle United tickets will give you the best opportunity to watch goals on both sides. Tottenham Hotspur is in second place, so Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur is the match with the most likelihood to get a lot of goals. Something we’ve seen already earlier this season when Spurs won with 4-1 at home.

Another view on buying tickets on xG

It’s a fact that roughly 95% of our tickets are for the home end. So, you can also focus on getting the very best possible experience. Home fans will make your day a lot better when their team is doing well. So, if we leave xGA out and only focus on xG, Liverpool tickets and Manchester City tickets are the best options to go for. Both teams have a xG of 2.3 on average per match this season. This will mean you get a big chance to see them scoring goals and get the crowd roaring.